The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for November 2009 was 6.4 percent, down one-tenth of a point from the revised October rate and up 1.1 points from a year ago.
“Our unemployment rate continued to fall slightly in November, but unlike the last few months we also saw a sizable jump in the number of employed Vermonters” said Patricia Moulton Powden, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor. “However, we're still seeing mixed signals in the labor market. Other indicators measuring the Vermont job market do not support such strong employment growth. We continue to be cautious whether or not these numbers are signals of recovery here in Vermont.”
Seasonal Job Growth
Before seasonal adjustment, Total Non-Farm (TNF) jobs fell by -2,500 or 0.8% over the month. The annual rate unadjusted job growth improved to -2.6%. This rate of annual loss is much better than what we have seen in the last few months, but this is due to an overstated job loss estimate in November of 2008 rather than any recent change in the job market. Most of the seasonal gains came form Healthcare and Social Assistance, (+300 jobs or 0.6%), Retail Trade, (+250 jobs or 0.7%) Manufacturing, (+200 jobs or +0.7%) and State Government Education, (+200 jobs or 2.3%). Large seasonal job losses were seen in Leisure and Hospitality, (-2,150 jobs or -7.3%), and Construction, (-1,150 jobs or -8.2%).
When seasonally adjusted, November jobs remained essentially flat at +300 or 0.1% from October to November. This is the third consecutive month of stable Total Non-Farm job counts. Healthcare and Social Assistance showed the largest growth, (+400 or 0.8%). The Construction sector showed the largest seasonally adjusted job losses, (-500 jobs or -3.8%) despite a small increase in unadjusted job levels.
Employment Growth
Vermont’s November seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by one tenth of a point to 6.4% percent as a result of a small declines in the number of unemployed and a large jump in employment. This level of growth in the estimate of employed Vermonters was not expected and is not supported by other measures of labor market health. Unexpectedly variable estimates may be an indicator that declines in the labor market are plateauing. However, we will have to wait for future month’s data to see if the recession cycle has broken its grip on job growth. Vermont’s November seasonally adjusted employment and labor force levels are statistically different from October levels. Estimates of unemployment and unemployment rates are not statistically different from October. For comparison purposes, the US seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for November was 10.0 percent, down two-tenths of a point from the October rate of 10.2 percent.
Unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 3.9 percent in Hartford to 8.1 percent in Rutland. Local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the November unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 6.2 percent, up three-tenths of a point from October 2009 and up 0.9 points from a year ago. The November unadjusted estimates were not statistically different from October values.
The planned implementation of the final phase of methodology changes in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program has been delayed until the January 2010 estimates (published in February). These new procedures are designed to bring state job estimates more in line with national estimates. The initial change in methodology resulted in a sharp shift downward in November and December, 2008 job estimates which now appear to have overestimated job loss. As a result, year over year comparisons for November and December are not valid until we have completed the annual benchmark process. The benchmark process will be complete by January 2010. As we move forward we can expect small sample states like Vermont to exhibit a higher degree of variability in month to month job estimates. As a result of this change in methodology, caution should be used in interpreting single month’s results. CES job numbers are now best understood in the context of their movement over several months as opposed to observed changes in a single month estimates. For details of these changes, please contact Andy Condon at the Vermont Department of Labor at 802-828-4153 or [email protected].
Source: Vermont Dept of Labor. 12.18.2009
Vermont Labor Force Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)
Changes From
November
2009
October
2009
November
2008
October
2009
November
2008
Total Labor Force
359,900
356,700
356,500
3,200
3,400
Employment
336,800
333,400
337,500
3,400
-700
Unemployment
23,100
23,300
19,000
-200
4,100
Rate (%)
6.4
6.5
5.3
-0.1
1.1
Vermont’s labor force, employment and unemployment statistics are produced from a combination of a Statewide survey of households and statistical modeling. The data are produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (LAUS) a cooperative program with the US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Vermont Department of Labor.
VERMONT LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LABOR MARKET AREAS BY RESIDENCE (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
November 2009 Estimates
Total
Number
Number
Nov-09
Oct-09
Nov-08
Area
Labor Force
Employed
Unemployed
Rate (%)
Rate (%)
Rate (%)
Barre-Montpelier
29,050
27,250
1,800
6.1
5.8
5.5
Bennington
13,600
12,700
900
6.6
6.6
5.4
Bradford
5,050
4,750
350
6.8
6.1
5.1
Brattleboro
24,400
22,950
1,500
6.1
5.8
5.4
Burlington-South Burlington
113,700
107,550
6,200
5.4
5.2
4.6
Hartford
20,350
19,550
800
3.9
3.7
3.0
Manchester
12,250
11,400
850
7.0
6.2
6.3
Middlebury
18,550
17,450
1,100
5.9
5.6
5.1
Morristown-Stowe
21,050
19,650
1,400
6.7
5.7
5.7
Newport
14,750
13,550
1,150
7.9
7.6
6.9
Randolph
8,950
8,300
650
7.1
7.1
5.6
Rutland
25,100
23,050
2,050
8.1
8.0
6.8
Springfield
12,450
11,550
900
7.2
6.8
5.7
St. Johnsbury
15,600
14,550
1,050
6.8
6.7
5.6
Swanton-Enosburg
14,250
13,250
1,050
7.3
6.8
6.8
Warren-Waitsfield
3,900
3,700
200
5.5
4.9
4.0
Woodstock
3,700
3,500
200
4.8
4.2
4.1
Vermont Total
358,950
336,650
22,300
6.2
5.9
5.3
Note: Unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed divided by total labor force, and expressed as a percent.
Source: Vermont Department of Labor LAUS program in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
VERMONT LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LABOR MARKET AREAS BY RESIDENCE (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
November 2009 Estimates
Total
Number
Number
Nov-09
Oct-09
Nov-08
Area
Labor Force
Employed
Unemployed
Rate (%)
Rate (%)
Rate (%)
Barre-Montpelier
29,050
27,250
1,800
6.1
5.8
5.5
Bennington
13,600
12,700
900
6.6
6.6
5.4
Bradford
5,050
4,750
350
6.8
6.1
5.1
Brattleboro
24,400
22,950
1,500
6.1
5.8
5.4
Burlington-South Burlington
113,700
107,550
6,200
5.4
5.2
4.6
Hartford
20,350
19,550
800
3.9
3.7
3.0
Manchester
12,250
11,400
850
7.0
6.2
6.3
Middlebury
18,550
17,450
1,100
5.9
5.6
5.1
Morristown-Stowe
21,050
19,650
1,400
6.7
5.7
5.7
Newport
14,750
13,550
1,150
7.9
7.6
6.9
Randolph
8,950
8,300
650
7.1
7.1
5.6
Rutland
25,100
23,050
2,050
8.1
8.0
6.8
Springfield
12,450
11,550
900
7.2
6.8
5.7
St. Johnsbury
15,600
14,550
1,050
6.8
6.7
5.6
Swanton-Enosburg
14,250
13,250
1,050
7.3
6.8
6.8
Warren-Waitsfield
3,900
3,700
200
5.5
4.9
4.0
Woodstock
3,700
3,500
200
4.8
4.2
4.1
Vermont Total
358,950
336,650
22,300
6.2
5.9
5.3
Note: Unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed divided by total labor force, and expressed as a percent.
Source: Vermont Department of Labor LAUS program in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics