The chief executives of Vermont s leading businesses seem cautious over sales prospects and employment levels for the spring and summer when compared to their fourth quarter 2008 forecasts, and they are unlikely to make broad capital investments. But the attitude of the business community appears to have stabilized. The mood was assessed at the end of the first quarter and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chair Bill Stritzler and President Lisa Ventriss.
Interestingly, our members responses appear to be very similar to last quarter, which suggests that employers are in a wait and see frame of mind.With economic stimulus monies and the summer tourism season on the horizon, employers are not ready to commit themselves until they see further developments. Ventriss said.
Chair Stritzler, who is managing director of the Jeffersonville-based Smugglers Notch Resort, says the results of the CEO survey reflect the realities of the marketplace. The news has been full of bad reports for business over the past three months, so CEOs wariness of business prospects over the next six months is understandable. A good summer tourism season, however, could change a lot of perspectives.
The Roundtable s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers for 100 of the state s top employers. Vermont s agriculture, construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, utilities, professional/business services, wholesale trade, and non-profit industries are represented. The response rate for this quarter was 46 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 40 to 73 percent.
1. How do you expect your company s sales to change in the next six months?
Sales
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
83%
13%
4%
Q2 2004
80%
15%
4%
Q3 2004
71%
25%
4%
Q4 2004
77%
22%
1%
Q1 2005
78%
19%
3%
Q2 2005
75%
23%
2%
Q3 2005
74%
24%
2%
Q4 2005
72%
24%
4%
Q1 2006
78%
20%
2%
Q2 2006
78%
22%
0%
Q3 2006
69%
25%
6%
Q4 2006
73%
23%
4%
Q3 2008
51%
35%
14%
Q4 2008
27%
46%
27%
Q1 2009
33%
30%
37%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company s capital spending to change in the next six months?
Capital
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
62%
30%
8%
Q2 2004
43%
41%
15%
Q3 2004
51%
42%
7%
Q4 2004
45%
46%
9%
Q1 2005
55%
37%
8%
Q2 2005
49%
43%
8%
Q3 2005
57%
38%
5%
Q4 2005
50%
35%
15%
Q1 2006
45%
45%
10%
Q2 2006
53%
40%
7%
Q3 2006
40%
50%
10%
Q4 2006
56%
39%
5%
Q3 2008
38%
42%
20%
Q4 2008
17 %
43%
40%
Q1 2009
12%
38%
50%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
3. How do you expect your company s employment to change in the next six months?
Employment
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
57%
38%
4%
Q2 2004
50%
48%
2%
Q3 2004
59%
37%
4%
Q4 2004
58%
39%
3%
Q1 2005
55%
38%
7%
Q2 2005
49%
42%
9%
Q3 2005
49%
44%
7%
Q4 2005
60%
35%
5%
Q1 2006
54%
39%
7%
Q2 2006
50%
45%
5%
Q3 2006
43%
49%
7%
Q4 2006
53%
41%
5%
Q3 2008
40%
42%
18%
Q4 2008
25%
35%
40%
Q1 2009
23%
37%
40%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
The Roundtable is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization of 100 CEOs of Vermont's top private and nonprofit employers, representing geographic diversity and all major sectors of the Vermont economy. The Roundtable is committed to sustaining a sound economy and preserving Vermont s unique quality of life by studying and make recommendations on statewide public policy issues.