Unemployment rate dips in January

Unemployment rate dips in January
Vermont Labor Force Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)
January 2005 December 2004 January 2004
Total Labor Force 353,100 354,700 353,100
Employment 340,800 342,000 338,000
Unemployment 12,400 12,700 15,100
Rate (%) 3.5 3.6 4.3
Montpelier - The Department of Employment and Training has announced that the
seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January was 3.5 percent, down one tenth of a
percentage point from the revised December estimate. The change in the rate from last
month, however, was not considered statistically significant. Vermont's unemployment
rate remained below the national unemployment rate of 5.2 percent.
Unemployment rates for Vermont's 17 labor market areas ranged from 1.7 percent in Hartford,
to 6.9 percent in Barre-Montpelier. Labor market area rates are not seasonally adjusted; for comparison,
the unadjusted rate for Vermont was 4.3 percent.
"Unemployment remained low as annual job growth improved," said Patricia A.
McDonald, Commissioner of the Department of Employment and Training. "Post-holiday
seasonal layoffs were slightly larger than expected in January but should be temporary."
Seasonally adjusted job numbers fell by 1,300 in January after a similar gain in
December. Leisure and hospitality added fewer jobs than usual, possibly indicating the
winter recreation season was not ideal. Health care and social assistance experienced an
unusual employment drop in January. Cuts in retail employment were larger than usual
following the holiday season. Manufacturing experienced a modest decline and appears
to have lost the momentum it displayed last summer. Job cuts in private education were
less than normal during the semester break, producing a slight increase in the seasonally
adjusted employment.
Before seasonal adjustment, the number of nonfarm jobs in Vermont fell by more than
8,000 as the typical winter contraction occurred. The largest decline was in retail trade as
many temporary jobs were lost after the peak holiday season. Construction employment
fell as expected due to limited outdoor activity. State and private educational institutions
reduced employment during their break in academic activity. Manufacturing cuts
occurred in both durable and nondurable production. Professional and business services
also declined, due partly to fewer jobs at temporary help firms. Winter recreation activity
helped to support the labor market but hiring was less than normal for January.
The total number of jobs was up by 1.8 percent compared to last year, which is slightly
higher than the revised estimates for recent months.
TECHNICAL NOTE
The unemployment and job estimates for prior years were revised in accordance with the
procedures of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. These benchmarking updates are done
every year. In addition, this year the methodology used to estimate the unemployment
rate has been improved to allow us to make a statement about whether the change in the
rate was statistically significant. In order to make such a statement, the unemployment
methodology must be able to estimate the combined sampling and modeling error
associated with the estimate of the unemployment rate. This also allows us to say the
January unemployment rate (3.5%) was within a band of 0.7 percentage points; or, we are
90 percent confident that the January unemployment rate was between 2.8 percent and
4.2 percent.
We have also updated the geographic areas known as Labor Market Areas. This is done
every 10 years based on the latest decennial Census data, and in discussion with the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. We use the Metropolitan Area and Micropolitan Areas
designated by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. We designate other economic
centers around the state based on population and commuting patterns. To see the
definitions of our new Labor Market Areas, go to our web site at:
http://www.vtlmi.info/unemp.cfm